Analysis of preliminary smartphone shipments data from Counterpoint Research, IDC and Canalys showed an average growth of 1.8 per cent year-on-year during Q1, with the trio highlighting inventory pushes and preparations for US tariffs as factors weighing on gains made during 2024.

Counterpoint Research offered the most bullish assessment of a 3 per cent rise, fuelled by gains in China, Latin America and Southeast Asia.

IDC trotted a middle ground of 1.5 per cent growth to 304.9 million units, a number it stated was anticipated as vendors upped production ahead of the US revealing its tariffs against imports from China.

Of the three companies, IDC was the only one to offer a unit shipment figure.

Canalys reported a 1 per cent increase in shipments, pointing to ongoing macroeconomic headwinds, “cautious consumer sentiment and delayed channel inventory digestion”.

Research manager Amber Liu expanded, explaining smartphone vendors “pushed high inventory volumes into channels to gain share” during Q1, but these were affected by “slower-than-expected sell-through”.

Francisco Jeronimo, VP of client devices at IDC, said vendors “strategically accelerated production schedules and pulled forward significant shipment volumes” in preparation for the US tariffs. This “effectively inflated” figures for the quarter beyond levels which would have been achieved through consumer demand alone.

Counterpoint Research senior analyst Yang Wang said its shipments figure was around half the level it expected due to a build-up in uncertainty around the US tariffs.

The company broadly concurred the shipments gains were driven by a resulting build-up of inventory and all three companies inevitably warned of likely turbulence moving forward as the impact of tariffs and broader geopolitical uncertainty is felt.