Starlink’s path into India took a decisive turn in March after Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel struck high-profile partnerships with the satellite broadband provider, representing a seismic shift from earlier opposition against Elon Musk’s venture.

Now, with the SpaceX subsidiary “only” needing the nod from regulators to launch services. Mobile World Live (MWL) spoke to analysts about how the move will play out in an ultra competitive environment where pricing, regulation, and political issues loom large.

A business truce
Starlink’s long-mooted entry into India has been riddled with years of licensing hurdles and domestic pushback. Musk has been eyeing the market since 2021, when the company began accepting pre-orders for its satellite internet service before securing authorisation.

The move triggered a swift response from Indian authorities, who ordered Starlink to shut down pre-sales, refund customer deposits, and halt operations until commercial licences were approved.

Since, the SpaceX subsidiary navigated a complex web of compliance demands to gain entry, with a primary roadblock being spectrum allocation—whether satellite spectrum should be assigned administratively or auctioned, similar to terrestrial telecoms services. Speaking to MWL, Joe Gardiner, research analyst at CCS Insight, noted the government’s decision to allocate spectrum administratively in late 2024 lowered barriers to entry, serving as a breakthrough for the company. The move also marked a setback for domestic telecom behemoths like Airtel and Jio, after both had initially resisted Starlink’s presence.

However, the industry giants pivoted last month. While the duo have existing satellite operator partnerships with Eutesalat’s OneWeb and Luxemborg-based SES respectively, Gardiner argues the Indian telcos now see Starlink “as a complementary good due to the vendor’s ability to tap into the direct-to-consumer (D2C) market”.

Starlink’s strategic model thus presents a unique opportunity for India as OneWeb and SES primarily focus on enterprise and backhaul solutions. On the flip side, the partnerships will be key to help Starlink navigate the country’s regulatory complexities and gain access to a vast subscriber base without having to battle for market share.

Counterpoint Research analyst and co-founder Neil Shah told MWL the collaboration is “a business truce” as until the Indian telcos develop robust LEO/GEO satellite networks, they will also remain dependent on the SpaceX subsidiary. “Both Jio-Airtel and Starlink need each other to drive this market.”

Furthermore, India’s digital inclusion ambitions likely strengthened Starlink’s case for entry. According to Shah, between 10 and 12 per cent of Indian households have fixed broadband access, while mobile broadband penetration still reaches only 58 per cent of the population. The government has been making concerted efforts to bridge the digital divide through fibre expansion and 5G fixed wireless access (FWA). Last year, Reliance Jio revealed its target to connect 100 million households through its 5G AirFiber service. With India’s push for digital inclusion presenting an opportunity, Gardiner stated Starlink will likely prioritise areas with no terrestrial connectivity before expanding to rural and possibly urban regions. “With fibre roll-out so low, Starlink will be able to target most areas in India”.

Sustained challenges
While Starlink has certainly made inroads into the country, challenges persist. Gardiner pointed out pricing will pose a key obstacle to mass adoption for Starlink in a sensitive Indian market. He highlighted that Jio’s 5G AirFiber service offers an entry-level plan at just $10 per month, with premium options maxing out at $29 for 500Mb/s speeds. In contrast, Starlink’s average broadband subscription fee of $50 per month is significantly higher than local alternatives. Combined with the additional cost of Starlink’s hardware and installation, he emphasised the price point could limit its appeal to its target customers, at least in the short term.

Competition is also an inevitable challenge. While pitched as complementary, the presence of foreign players like OneWeb and SES still does pose a threat to Starlink, and others are circling. Shah explained Amazon’s Project Kuiper is expected to follow a similar collaborative entry model in India, while Apple-backed Globalstar is rumoured to be eyeing a space, adding more heat to the competitive landscape.

On the regulatory side, Gardiner noted the Indian government may limit the company’s spectrum allocation to a five-year term, signalling a cautious approach aimed at assessing satellite broadband’s impact before committing to long-term agreements.

India’s strict data localisation laws, mandatory security testing of foreign telecoms equipment and requirements to disclose any ties to India’s neighbouring nations such as China is also another barrier facing Starlink.

Shah explained the “regulatory hurdles will also come at a price”, potentially making the country less lucrative for Musk’s satellite venture compared to Western markets.

Beyond Starlink
Indeed, Musk’s growing presence in India extends beyond Starlink as his other technology companies—Tesla, X, and Grok AI—also grapple complex political and regulatory landscapes.

“Though it appears Starlink is likely to be approved in India, relations are not strong with the Indian government due to how Elon Musk conducts his other business ventures,” said Gardiner.

Musk recently even filed a lawsuit against the government over censorship of X and cancelled a planned visit to the country in 2024.

Nevertheless, Shah noted that Musk’s businesses require different market entry strategies. “Musk is in a strong position and is banking on Trump-led US and Modi-led Indian administrations to find a soft landing, whether it’s through reverse tariffs benefits, regulatory lobbying, or a middle way via joint ventures or strategic partnerships with local players.”

For Starlink, he stated the strategic partnerships route will be key. Meanwhile, X also faces regulatory pressures related to free speech and content moderation, and Grok AI’s success hinges on adapting to India’s data sovereignty rules.

Ultimately, Gardiner suggested that Musk must perform a precarious balancing act between China, India, and the US government, for which he serves as a key advisor. His businesses could face heightened scrutiny depending on geopolitical developments, and his decisions on where to prioritise investments could indeed impact the future of Starlink in India.

While its collaboration with Jio and Airtel provides a foothold, it is clear that Starlink’s journey into India and what happens if it does get there will be anything but straightforward.