India’s cellular IoT connections are forecast to jump more than seven-times to 400 million by 2030 after growing 34 per cent in the year to July 2024, data from Counterpoint Research showed.

Telecom Regulatory Authority of India statistics state the country’s operators closed July with 53.7 million M2M connections, the related metric it tracks. Bharti Airtel was on top with 28.5 million followed by Vodafone Idea on 14.7 million, Reliance Jio had 5.9 million and BSNL 2.9 million.

Despite the expected growth in India over the coming years, Counterpoint research director Mohit Agrawal told Mobile World Live China’s huge installed base of 2.3 billion means it will continue to dominate the sector.

China accounted for nearly 70 per cent of cellular IoT connections worldwide in 2023.

He indicated while there are minor differences between M2M and IoT connections, for all practical purposes they are the same.

Late start
Agrawal pointed out India began its digital transformation journey much later than China and is now working to build synergies between IoT module supply, enterprise adoption and network support. Mass markets such as the power sector, smart meters and agriculture remain highly price-sensitive, while the connected car market is just beginning to gain momentum.

“India could potentially mirror China’s growth trajectory, but this will depend on the effective implementation of policies and strong support from key ecosystem players,” he added, noting power distribution companies have started deploying smart meters, while numerous start-ups are targeting fleet management and telematics.

Airtel has been aggressive in lining up partners in the energy sector, with its enterprise unit forging deals with Adani Energy Solutions, IntelliSmart and UK-based Secure Meters over the past 18 months to deploy smart meters running on the operator’s NB-IoT and 4G networks.

The government set the goal of replacing 250 million conventional meters with smart meters in the next five years.

Significant gap
Agrawal explained the reason for the huge gap between China and India is the former has a large base for the many applications and takes about a 65 per cent share in shipments of cellular IoT modules that go into IoT devices.

China’s installed base of smart meters, point-of-sales terminals and automobiles is much larger than India’s, and the mainland is more advanced in digital transformation.

“The widespread adoption of cellular IoT in China is the result of a concerted effort by the government, regulatory bodies, IoT module manufacturers and enterprises eager to embrace digital transformation.”

He added this progress is supported by a robust network infrastructure and collaboration with equipment vendors.

A report by TechSci Research highlighted the availability of more affordable IoT devices and connectivity services is a significant driver fuelling growth in India. In addition, more advanced infrastructure, including the rollout of 5G networks, delivers faster data transmission speeds and lower latency, which are critical for real-time applications.

On the downside, it noted the lack of skilled workers and expertise in IoT technologies is a barrier slowing adoption.

Counterpoint Research data showed global cellular IoT module shipments in Q2 increased 11 per cent year-on-year, driven mostly by China and India.

Despite China’s dominate share of connections, its contribution to global IoT revenue is just 36 per cent.