IDC increased its 2024 forecast for global smartphone shipments by almost 2 per cent to 1.2 billion units, driven by demand for budget Android handsets and more integration of generative AI (genAI) on premium devices.

The research company stated growth in Q1 of 12 per cent, followed by 9 per cent growth in Q2 brought “optimism” about the second half of the year. To that end, it predicts growth of 5.8 per cent for the year, up from a previous 4 per cent forecast, amounting to 1.2 billion units.

Budget Android devices are now growing “rapidly” in China and across emerging markets after a “difficult” two years, while consumers in premium markets are starting to embrace genAI, IDC observed.

Notably, IDC’s senior research director Nabila Popal forecasts growth for Android “will be nine-times faster” at 7.1 per cent than Apple’s iOS at 0.8 per cent.

“Apple’s softer growth is a result of increasing competition in China but also a higher comparison base year,” Popal said.

However, IDC added there is potential upside in the iOS forecast, depending on how its much-vaunted genAI push including the Apple Intelligence system plays out in the upcoming iPhone 16 and if the company can establish AI partnerships in China.

Anthony Scarsella, research director, mobile phones at IDC, said genAI smartphones are relatively new to the market, but premium flagships will continue to adopt features to “help separate them from the pack”.

“However, genAI-capable devices won’t come cheap initially, as the average selling price for these genAI smartphones will be more than double the cost of non-genAI capable devices, further driving the premiumisation trend”, Scarsella added.