Dell’Oro Group reduced its mobile core network (MCN) market forecast for the fifth time, predicting revenue would decline 10 per cent from 2024 to 2028.

The research company stated the downturn is due to “severe economic headwinds,” primarily high inflation rates, and slow adoption of standalone (SA) 5G by operators.

Research director Dave Bolan explained the latest market prediction is the first forecast of its last five where the five-year CAGR fell into negative territory.

He noted the number of SA 5G networks commercially deployed remains the same as at end-2023, at about 50 networks.

Bolan cited the same factors as contributing to a lowered forecast for the multi-access edge computing (MEC) sector element of the MCN market over the five-year forecast period.

“In the case of MEC, the adoption rate is slowed much more dramatically than the overall MCN market,” Bolan stated.

He said the mobile industry is addressing MEC concerns with several initiatives including open gateway APIs to develop new uses cases and the introduction of reduced capability (RedCap) IoT devices, which are expected to bring more 5G models into the market at lower price points.

“However, these will take time to bring solutions to market and more importantly at scale to have an impact on the overall market growth,” Bolan added.

The CAGR forecast by region is positive for Asia Pacific (excluding China), Europe, and Middle East and Africa, while North America, Caribbean and Latin America and China are tipped to decline.